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Entries in economy (3)


So what if there's a recession

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Coping with cyclical inevitability. 

Forecasts of recession are common this time of the year. Trawl through the financial press and you’ll see all sorts of gloomy predictions. Most will be wrong. Forecasters don’t have a great track record. Research shows barely 15% of them will get it right. 

Should we worry?

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Has anyone noticed the good news?

What is this historic stock market chart?

It’s looks like a nice ride for any investor. It moves higher over time but not in a straight line. It does so with the usual higher tops and higher bottoms. It covers a period of several years.

What is it? It’s the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the traditional proxy for the US market. This was one of the best performances in US market history. Over the 40 months covered by this chart, it doubled.

When did this happen?

It was the last three and a half years. In March 2009, the DJI stood at 6,595. When I made this chart yesterday, it closed at 13,275. Up 101%.

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Surfing the business cycle

Darkest before dawn, but a long night

How bad is this economy? Rather than get out of bed, it’s decided to roll over and sleep on. It’s too hard. Unemployment in the US is getting worse, not better. The European debt crisis lurches from one nation to another.

Countries like Australia and Canada that escaped the nastier side of the global meltdown are now struggling with shrinking consumer demand in two-speed economies. China might still be on a roll, but Beijing is trying to rein in excessive lending.

Most of this is unpredictable and out of our control. Is there anything we can be certain about? Take a look at this chart from economist, Bill McBride.

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